In the case of perishable commodity, the cost of storage is higher than expected future price of a commodity (For ex: TradeINR prefer to sell tomatoes now rather than waiting for 3 more months to get a good price as a cost of storage of tomato is more than price they yield by storing the same). So in this case, the spot prices reflect current supply and demand, not future movements. There spot prices for perishables are more volatile.
Whereas price extremes have no boundaries, they don't last forever, eventually commodity market supply and demand factors will bring prices back to a more equilibrium state. Accordingly, while caution is warranted at extreme levels it is often a good time to be constructing counter trend trades as it could be one of the most advantageous times in history to be involved in a market. For instance, similar to the idea of call options being over-priced when a market is at an extreme high, the puts might be abnormally cheap. Once again, your personal situation would determine whether an unlimited risk or limited risk option strategy should be utilized. Please realize that identifying extreme pricing scenarios is easy, it is much more difficult to predict the timing necessary to convert it into a profitable venture.
In search of a promising commodity option trade, it is important to look at whether or not the options are priced fairly. Option prices fluctuate according to supply and demand in the underlying commodity market. At times, options on futures prices become inflated or undervalued relative to theoretical models such as Black and Scholes. For example, during the "crash" of 2008 the value of put options exploded as traders scrambled to buy insurance for their stock portfolios or simply wanted to wager that the equity market would go down forever. The increase in option premium was partly due to inflated volatility but increased demand for the instruments had a lot to do with it. Those that chose to purchase put options at inopportune times and at overvalued prices, likely didn't fair very well.
There is a concert of Coldplay happening in an auditorium in Mumbai next week. Mr X is a very big fan of Coldplay and he went to ticket counter but unfortunately, all the tickets have been sold out. He was very disappointed. Only seven days left for the concert but he is trying all possible ways including black market where prices were more than the actual cost of a ticket. Luckily his friend is the son of an influential politician of the city and his friend has given a letter from that politician to organizers recommending one ticket to Mr.X at actual price. He is happy now. So still 6 days are left for the concert. However, in the black market, tickets are available at a higher price than the actual price.
There are two types of commodity options, a call option and a put option. Understanding what each of these is and how they work will help you determine when and how to use them. The buyer of a commodity option pays a premium (payment) to the seller of the option for the right, not the obligation, to take delivery of the underlying commodity futures contract (exercise). This financial value is treated as an asset, although eroding, to the option buyer and a liability to the seller.
On the other hand, commodity option buyers are exposed to limited risk and unlimited profit potential, but they also face dismal odds of success on each individual speculation. For this reason, we often refer to the practice of buying options in the commodity markets as the purchase of a lottery ticket. It probably won’t pay off but if it does the potential gain is considerable. Conversely to the commodity option seller, an option buyer views the position as an asset (not a liability) until it is sold or expires. This is because any long option held in a commodity trading account has the potential to provide a return to the trader, even if that potential is small.
Conversely, a put option is a contract that gives the investor the right to sell a certain amount of shares (again, typically 100 per contract) of a certain security or commodity at a specified price over a certain amount of time. Just like call options, a put option allows the trader the right (but not obligation) to sell a security by the contract's expiration date.