Whereas price extremes have no boundaries, they don't last forever, eventually commodity market supply and demand factors will bring prices back to a more equilibrium state. Accordingly, while caution is warranted at extreme levels it is often a good time to be constructing counter trend trades as it could be one of the most advantageous times in history to be involved in a market. For instance, similar to the idea of call options being over-priced when a market is at an extreme high, the puts might be abnormally cheap. Once again, your personal situation would determine whether an unlimited risk or limited risk option strategy should be utilized. Please realize that identifying extreme pricing scenarios is easy, it is much more difficult to predict the timing necessary to convert it into a profitable venture.
For example: Tomatoes are cheap in July and will be expensive in January, you can’t buy them in July and take delivery in January, since they will spoil before you can take advantage of January’s high prices. The July price will reflect tomato supply and demand in July. The forward price for January will reflect the market’s expectations of supply and demand in January. July tomatoes are effectively a different commodity from January tomatoes.
Similarly, if you believe the company’s share price is going to dip to $80, you’d buy a put option (giving you the right to sell shares) with a strike price above $80 (ideally a strike price no lower than $80 plus the cost of the option, so that the option remains profitable at $80). If the stock drops below the strike price, your option is in the money.
The information contained in this article is provided for general informational purposes, and should not be construed as investment advice, tax advice, a solicitation or offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Ally Invest does not provide tax advice and does not represent in any manner that the outcomes described herein will result in any particular tax consequence. Prospective investors should confer with their personal tax advisors regarding the tax consequences based on their particular circumstances.
For example, a plastics producer could use commodity futures to lock in a price for buying natural gas by-products needed for production at a date in the future. The price of natural gas—like all petroleum products—can fluctuate considerably, and since the producer requires the natural gas by-product for production, they are at risk of cost increases in the future.
Still other traders can make the mistake of thinking that cheaper is better. For options, this isn't necessarily true. The cheaper an option's premium is, the more "out of the money" the option typically is, which can be a riskier investment with less profit potential if it goes wrong. Buying "out of the money" call or put options means you want the underlying security to drastically change in value, which isn't always predictable.
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