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Market expectations of commodity due to variations in demand and supply (If the market feels commodity may go up and traders are bullish about commodity, then forward prices are higher than forward parity price, whereas, if market feels that prices may go down then forward prices may be lesser) The expectations are mainly dependent on demand supply factoINR.
Trading in commodity futures contracts can be very risky for the inexperienced. The high degree of leverage used with commodity futures can amplify gains, but losses can be amplified as well. If a futures contract position is losing money, the broker can initiate a margin call, which is a demand for additional funds to shore up the account. Further, the broker will usually have to approve an account to trade on margins before they can enter into contracts.
Basically, you need the stock to have a move outside of a range. A similar strategy betting on an outsized move in the securities when you expect high volatility (uncertainty) is to buy a call and buy a put with different strikes and the same expiration—known as a strangle. A strangle requires larger price moves in either direction to profit but is also less expensive than a straddle. On the other hand, being short either a straddle or a strangle (selling both options) would profit from a market that doesn’t move much.
An option's price, its premium, tracks the price of its underlying futures contract which, in turn, tracks the price of the underlying cash. Therefore, the March T-bond option premium tracks the March T-bond futures price. The December S&P 500 index option follows the December S&P 500 index futures. The May soybean option tracks the May soybean futures contract. Because option prices track futures prices, speculators can use them to take advantage of price changes in the underlying commodity, and hedgers can protect their cash positions with them. Speculators can take outright positions in options. Options can also be used in hedging strategies with futures and cash positions.
In case of futures, a buyer of a contract is said to be “long position holder” and a seller is “Short position holder”. In the case of futures, to avoid the risk of defaulting contract involves both parties lodging a certain percentage margin of value of contract with a mutually trusted third party. Generally, in gold futures trading, margin varies between 2%-20% depending on the volatility of gold in spot market.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All securities involve risk and may result in loss. While the data Ally Invest uses from third parties is believed to be reliable, Ally Invest cannot ensure the accuracy or completeness of data provided by clients or third parties.
On the other hand, commodity option buyers are exposed to limited risk and unlimited profit potential, but they also face dismal odds of success on each individual speculation. For this reason, we often refer to the practice of buying options in the commodity markets as the purchase of a lottery ticket. It probably won’t pay off but if it does the potential gain is considerable. Conversely to the commodity option seller, an option buyer views the position as an asset (not a liability) until it is sold or expires. This is because any long option held in a commodity trading account has the potential to provide a return to the trader, even if that potential is small.
So, call options are also much like insurance - you are paying for a contract that expires at a set time but allows you to purchase a security (like a stock) at a predetermined price (which won't go up even if the price of the stock on the market does). However, you will have to renew your option (typically on a weekly, monthly or quarterly basis). For this reason, options are always experiencing what's called time decay - meaning their value decays over time.