In search of a promising commodity option trade, it is important to look at whether or not the options are priced fairly. Option prices fluctuate according to supply and demand in the underlying commodity market. At times, options on futures prices become inflated or undervalued relative to theoretical models such as Black and Scholes. For example, during the "crash" of 2008 the value of put options exploded as traders scrambled to buy insurance for their stock portfolios or simply wanted to wager that the equity market would go down forever. The increase in option premium was partly due to inflated volatility but increased demand for the instruments had a lot to do with it. Those that chose to purchase put options at inopportune times and at overvalued prices, likely didn't fair very well.
Volatility: If an options market is highly volatile (i.e. if its daily price range is large), the premium will be higher, because the option has the potential to make more profit for the buyer. Conversely, if an options market is not volatile (i.e. if its daily price range is small), the premium will be lower. An options market's volatility is calculated using its long-term price range, its recent price range, and its expected price range before its expiration date, using various volatility pricing models.
A call option is a contract that gives the investor the right to buy a certain amount of shares (typically 100 per contract) of a certain security or commodity at a specified price over a certain amount of time. For example, a call option would allow a trader to buy a certain amount of shares of either stocks, bonds, or even other instruments like ETFs or indexes at a future time (by the expiration of the contract).
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With this strategy, the trader's risk can either be conservative or risky depending on their preference (which is a definite plus). For iron condors, the position of the trade is non-directional, which means the asset (like a stock) can either go up or down - so, there is profit potential for a fairly wide range. To use this kind of strategy, sell a put and buy another put at a lower strike price (essentially, a put spread), and combine it by buying a call and selling a call at a higher strike price (a call spread). These calls and puts are short.
In case of futures, a buyer of a contract is said to be “long position holder” and a seller is “Short position holder”. In the case of futures, to avoid the risk of defaulting contract involves both parties lodging a certain percentage margin of value of contract with a mutually trusted third party. Generally, in gold futures trading, margin varies between 2%-20% depending on the volatility of gold in spot market.
To reiterate, buying options in times of low volatility could prove to be advantageous should the volatility increase sharply. On the other hand, a lack of deviation in the price of the underlying asset will produce lower market volatility and even cheaper option premiums. Once again, pricing is relative and dynamic; "cheap" doesn't mean that it can't get "cheaper".
In the case of perishable commodity, the cost of storage is higher than expected future price of a commodity (For ex: TradeINR prefer to sell tomatoes now rather than waiting for 3 more months to get a good price as a cost of storage of tomato is more than price they yield by storing the same). So in this case, the spot prices reflect current supply and demand, not future movements. There spot prices for perishables are more volatile.
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Whether the economy is hot or not, an investor can make money trading commodity options, regardless of the condition of the market. Briefly, a commodity option allows its owner to either sell or buy a commodity like corn or wheat at a future date. You will buy a so-called “put option” if you think the price of the commodity will go down and a “call option” if you think the price will rise. And never will you have to take possession of the commodity itself.
When you buy an option, the risk is limited to the premium that you pay. Selling an option is the equivalent of acting as the insurance company. When you sell an option, all you can earn is the premium that you initially receive. The potential for losses is unlimited. The best hedge for an option is another option on the same asset as options act similarly over time.
Commodity futures used by companies give a hedge to the risk of adverse price movements. The goal of hedging is to prevent losses from potentially unfavorable price changes rather than to speculate. Many companies that hedge use or producing the underlying asset of a futures contract. Examples of commodities hedging use include farmers, oil producers, livestock breeders, manufacturers, and many others.
Options on futures began trading in 1983. Today, puts and calls on agricultural, metal, and financial (foreign currency, interest-rate and stock index) futures are traded by open outcry in designated pits. These options pits are usually located near those where the underlying futures trade. Many of the features that apply to stock options apply to futures options.
A bull call spread, or bull call vertical spread, is created by buying a call and simultaneously selling another call with a higher strike price and the same expiration. The spread is profitable if the underlying asset increases in price, but the upside is limited due to the short call strike. The benefit, however, is that selling the higher strike call reduces the cost of buying the lower one. Similarly, a bear put spread, or bear put vertical spread, involves buying a put and selling a second put with a lower strike and the same expiration. If you buy and sell options with different expirations, it is known as a calendar spread or time spread.
The price at which you agree to buy the underlying security via the option is called the "strike price," and the fee you pay for buying that option contract is called the "premium." When determining the strike price, you are betting that the asset (typically a stock) will go up or down in price. The price you are paying for that bet is the premium, which is a percentage of the value of that asset.