Whether the economy is hot or not, an investor can make money trading commodity options, regardless of the condition of the market. Briefly, a commodity option allows its owner to either sell or buy a commodity like corn or wheat at a future date. You will buy a so-called “put option” if you think the price of the commodity will go down and a “call option” if you think the price will rise. And never will you have to take possession of the commodity itself.
Market expectations of commodity due to variations in demand and supply (If the market feels commodity may go up and traders are bullish about commodity, then forward prices are higher than forward parity price, whereas, if market feels that prices may go down then forward prices may be lesser) The expectations are mainly dependent on demand supply factoINR.
If in six months the market crashes by 20% (500 points on the index), he or she has made 250 points by being able to sell the index at $2250 when it is trading at $2000—a combined loss of just 10%. In fact, even if the market drops to zero, the loss would only be 10% if this put option is held. Again, purchasing the option will carry a cost (the premium), and if the market doesn’t drop during that period, the maximum loss on the option is just the premium spent.
Arbitrage arguments: When the commodity has plentiful supply then the prices can be very well dictated or influenced by Arbitrage arguments. Arbitrage is basically buying in one market and simultaneously selling in another, profiting from a temporary difference. This is considered riskless profit for the investor/trader. For example, if the price of gold in delhi is INR 30,000 per 10 grams and in Mumbai gold price is INR 35,000 then arbitrageur will purchase gold in Delhi and sell in Mumbai
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In the case of perishable commodity, the cost of storage is higher than expected future price of a commodity (For ex: TradeINR prefer to sell tomatoes now rather than waiting for 3 more months to get a good price as a cost of storage of tomato is more than price they yield by storing the same). So in this case, the spot prices reflect current supply and demand, not future movements. There spot prices for perishables are more volatile.
As an example, let's say a farmer is expecting to produce 1,000,000 bushels of soybeans in the next 12 months. Typically, soybean futures contracts include the quantity of 5,000 bushels. The farmer's break-even point on a bushel of soybeans is $10 per bushel meaning $10 is the minimum price needed to cover the costs of producing the soybeans. The farmer sees that a one-year futures contract for soybeans is currently priced at $15 per bushel.
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Puts are more or less the mirror image of calls. The put buyer expects the price to go down. Therefore, he pays a premium in the hope that the futures price will drop. If it does, he has two choices: (1) He can close out his long put position at a profit since it will be more valuable; or (2) he can exercise and obtain a profitable short position in the futures contract since the strike price will be higher than the prevailing futures price.
Options trading may seem overwhelming, but they're easy to understand if you know a few key points. Investor portfolios are usually constructed with several asset classes. These may be stocks, bonds, ETFs, and even mutual funds. Options are another asset class, and when used correctly, they offer many advantages that trading stocks and ETFs alone cannot.
There’s another potential problem if you base your decision solely on commissions. Discount brokers can charge rock-bottom prices because they provide only bare-bones platforms or tack on extra fees for data and tools. On the other hand, at some of the larger, more established brokers you’ll pay higher commissions, but in exchange you get free access to all the information you need to perform due diligence.
Contract Months (Time): All options have an expiration date; they only are valid for a particular time. Options are wasting assets; they do not last forever. For example, a December corn call expires in late November. As assets with a limited time horizon, attention must be accorded to option positions. The longer the duration of an option, the more expensive it will be. The term portion of an option's premium is its time value.
With options markets, as with futures markets, long and short refer to the buying and selling of one or more contracts, but unlike futures markets, they do not refer to the direction of the trade. For example, if a futures trade is entered by buying a contract, the trade is a long trade, and the trader wants the price to go up, but with options, a trade can be entered by buying a Put contract, and is still a long trade, even though the trader wants the price to go down. The following chart may help explain this further:
On the other hand, commodity option buyers are exposed to limited risk and unlimited profit potential, but they also face dismal odds of success on each individual speculation. For this reason, we often refer to the practice of buying options in the commodity markets as the purchase of a lottery ticket. It probably won’t pay off but if it does the potential gain is considerable. Conversely to the commodity option seller, an option buyer views the position as an asset (not a liability) until it is sold or expires. This is because any long option held in a commodity trading account has the potential to provide a return to the trader, even if that potential is small.
The Problem arises if one party fails to perform. The trader may fail to sell if the prices of steel goes very high like for example INR 40,000 in January 2017, in that case, he may not be able to sell at INR 31,000. On the other hand, if the buyer goes bankrupt or if the price of steel in January 2017 goes down to INR 20,000 there is an incentive to default. In other words, whichever way the price moves, both the buyer and seller have an incentive to default.
Options are available as either a Call or a Put, depending on whether they give the right to buy, or the right to sell. Call options give the holder the right to buy the underlying commodity, and Put options give the right to sell the underlying commodity. The buying or selling right only takes effect when the option is exercised, which can happen on the expiration date (European options), or at any time up until the expiration date (US options).
With respect to an option, this cost is known as the premium. It is the price of the option contract. In our home example, the deposit might be $20,000 that the buyer pays the developer. Let’s say two years have passed, and now the developments are built and zoning has been approved. The home buyer exercises the option and buys the home for $400,000 because that is the contract purchased.
A commodity market is a market that trades in primary economic sector rather manufactured products. Soft commodities are agriculture products such as Wheat, coffee, sugar and cocoa. Hard commodities are mined products such as gold and oil. Future contracts are the oldest way of investing in commodities. Futures are secured by physical assets. Commodity market can includes physical trading in derivatives using spot prices, forwards, futures and options on futures. Collectively all these are called Derivatives.
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The potential home buyer would benefit from the option of buying or not. Imagine they can buy a call option from the developer to buy the home at say $400,000 at any point in the next three years. Well, they can—you know it as a non-refundable deposit. Naturally, the developer wouldn’t grant such an option for free. The potential home buyer needs to contribute a down-payment to lock in that right.
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Call writers and put writers (sellers), however, are obligated to buy or sell if the option expires in-the-money (more on that below). This means that a seller may be required to make good on a promise to buy or sell. It also implies that option sellers have exposure to more, and in some cases, unlimited, risks. This means writers can lose much more than the price of the options premium.