Speculation is a wager on future price direction. A speculator might think the price of a stock will go up, perhaps based on fundamental analysis or technical analysis. A speculator might buy the stock or buy a call option on the stock. Speculating with a call option—instead of buying the stock outright—is attractive to some traders since options provide leverage. An out-of-the-money call option may only cost a few dollars or even cents compared to the full price of a $100 stock.
For example: Tomatoes are cheap in July and will be expensive in January, you can’t buy them in July and take delivery in January, since they will spoil before you can take advantage of January’s high prices. The July price will reflect tomato supply and demand in July. The forward price for January will reflect the market’s expectations of supply and demand in January. July tomatoes are effectively a different commodity from January tomatoes.
On the other hand, commodity option buyers are exposed to limited risk and unlimited profit potential, but they also face dismal odds of success on each individual speculation. For this reason, we often refer to the practice of buying options in the commodity markets as the purchase of a lottery ticket. It probably won’t pay off but if it does the potential gain is considerable. Conversely to the commodity option seller, an option buyer views the position as an asset (not a liability) until it is sold or expires. This is because any long option held in a commodity trading account has the potential to provide a return to the trader, even if that potential is small.
As an example, let's say a farmer is expecting to produce 1,000,000 bushels of soybeans in the next 12 months. Typically, soybean futures contracts include the quantity of 5,000 bushels. The farmer's break-even point on a bushel of soybeans is $10 per bushel meaning $10 is the minimum price needed to cover the costs of producing the soybeans. The farmer sees that a one-year futures contract for soybeans is currently priced at $15 per bushel.
In the case of perishable commodity, the cost of storage is higher than expected future price of a commodity (For ex: TradeINR prefer to sell tomatoes now rather than waiting for 3 more months to get a good price as a cost of storage of tomato is more than price they yield by storing the same). So in this case, the spot prices reflect current supply and demand, not future movements. There spot prices for perishables are more volatile.
For example: A steel manufacturer importing coal from Australia currently and in order to reduce the volatility of changes in prices he always hedges the coal purchases on a 3 monthly forward contract where he agrees with the seller on day one of financial quarter to supply coal at defined price irrespective of price movements during quarter. So in this case, the contract is forward/future and buyer has an intention to buy the goods and no intention of making profit from price changes.
Based on data from IHS Markit for SEC Rule 605 eligible orders executed at Fidelity between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 20198. The comparison is based on an analysis of price statistics that include all SEC Rule 605 eligible market and marketable limit orders of 100-499 shares for the 100 share figure and 100–1,999 shares for the 1,000 share figure. For both the Fidelity and Industry savings per order figures used in the example, the figures are calculated by taking the average savings per share for the eligible trades within the respective order size range and multiplying each by either 100 or 1000, for consistency purposes. Fidelity's average retail order size for SEC Rule 605 eligible orders (100 -1,999 shares) and (100–9,999 shares) during this time period was 430 and 842 shares, respectively. The average retail order size for the Industry for the same shares ranges and time period was 228 and 333 shares, respectively. Price improvement examples are based on averages and any price improvement amounts related to your trades will depend on the particulars of your specific trade.
As an example, let's say an initial margin amount of $3,700 allows an investor to enter into a futures contract for 1,000 barrels of oil valued at $45,000—with oil priced at $45 per barrel. If the price of oil is trading at $60 at the contract's expiry, the investor has a $15 gain or a $15,000 profit. The trades would settle through the investor's brokerage account crediting the net difference of the two contracts. Most futures contracts will be cash settled, but some contracts will settle with the delivery of the underlying asset to a centralized processing warehouse.
Options on futures contracts are exactly what the name implies, they give traders "options". They are capable of being used in nearly every commodity market scenario and with variable risk and reward profiles. Too many traders fail to tap the true potential and flexibility of option spreads due to their seemingly complex nature; however, things aren't always as they appear. We strongly believe that you owe it to yourself to overcome your fear of trading commodity options and open your mind to the possibilities.
A long options trade is entered by buying an options contract and paying the premium to the options seller. If the market then moves in the desired direction, the options contract will come into profit (in the money). There are two different ways that an in the money option can be turned into realized profit. The first is to sell the contract (as with futures contracts) and keep the difference between the buying and selling prices as the profit. Selling an options contract to exit a long trade is safe because the sale is of an already owned contract.
Just as you can buy a stock because you think the price will go up or short a stock when you think its price is going to drop, an option allows you to bet on which direction you think the price of a stock will go. But instead of buying or shorting the asset outright, when you buy an option you’re buying a contract that allows — but doesn’t obligate — you to do a number of things, including:
When purchasing put options, you are expecting the price of the underlying security to go down over time (so, you're bearish on the stock). For example, if you are purchasing a put option on the S&P 500 index with a current value of $2,100 per share, you are being bearish about the stock market and are assuming the S&P 500 will decline in value over a given period of time (maybe to sit at $1,700). In this case, because you purchased the put option when the index was at $2,100 per share (assuming the strike price was at or in the money), you would be able to sell the option at that same price (not the new, lower price). This would equal a nice "cha-ching" for you as an investor.