Because options prices can be modeled mathematically with a model such as the Black-Scholes, many of the risks associated with options can also be modeled and understood. This particular feature of options actually makes them arguably less risky than other asset classes, or at least allows the risks associated with options to be understood and evaluated. Individual risks have been assigned Greek letter names, and are sometimes referred to simply as "the Greeks."
Whereas price extremes have no boundaries, they don't last forever, eventually commodity market supply and demand factors will bring prices back to a more equilibrium state. Accordingly, while caution is warranted at extreme levels it is often a good time to be constructing counter trend trades as it could be one of the most advantageous times in history to be involved in a market. For instance, similar to the idea of call options being over-priced when a market is at an extreme high, the puts might be abnormally cheap. Once again, your personal situation would determine whether an unlimited risk or limited risk option strategy should be utilized. Please realize that identifying extreme pricing scenarios is easy, it is much more difficult to predict the timing necessary to convert it into a profitable venture.
A call option is a contract that gives the investor the right to buy a certain amount of shares (typically 100 per contract) of a certain security or commodity at a specified price over a certain amount of time. For example, a call option would allow a trader to buy a certain amount of shares of either stocks, bonds, or even other instruments like ETFs or indexes at a future time (by the expiration of the contract).
Fluctuations in option prices can be explained by intrinsic value and extrinsic value, which is also known as time value. An option's premium is the combination of its intrinsic value and time value. Intrinsic value is the in-the-money amount of an options contract, which, for a call option, is the amount above the strike price that the stock is trading. Time value represents the added value an investor has to pay for an option above the intrinsic value. This is the extrinsic value or time value. So, the price of the option in our example can be thought of as the following:
Pay a “premium” wherever you buy a commodity option. Let's say you purchase a “call” option on 100 bushels of corn, and the premium is $2 per bushel. You will pay $200 for the right to exercise your option until it expires. That is your only cost to purchase the option, except for whatever commission you had to pay to your brokerage company. Even if you choose not to exercise the option before it expires, your investment will be limited to the $200 premium plus commission.
In our opinion, commodity markets coming off of long-term highs or lows typically present traders with an extraordinary prospect. However, it is important to realize that just because a commodity seems "cheap" doesn't mean that it can't go lower. Likewise, while we would never advocate buying (or being bullish with options) a commodity at an all time high, it is always possible that prices can continue higher but generally speaking options in such an environment are over-priced. As a result, they come with magnificently low odds of success.
For instance, it is possible to construct an option strategy in the futures markets that is affordable without sacrificing the odds of success...but with the convenience comes theoretically unlimited risk. This is easier than it sounds, similar to the way you would borrow money to pay for a house or a car, you can borrow money from the exchange to pay for long commodity option trades. There are an unlimited number of combinations of self-financed trades but they are typically going to involve more short options than long options, or at least as much premium collected on the sold options than that paid for the longs. In essence, the money brought in through the sale of the short options goes to pay for the futures options that are purchased. The result is a relatively close-to-the-money option with little out of pocket expense but theoretically unlimited risk beyond the strike price of the naked short options.
As an example, let's say an initial margin amount of $3,700 allows an investor to enter into a futures contract for 1,000 barrels of oil valued at $45,000—with oil priced at $45 per barrel. If the price of oil is trading at $60 at the contract's expiry, the investor has a $15 gain or a $15,000 profit. The trades would settle through the investor's brokerage account crediting the net difference of the two contracts. Most futures contracts will be cash settled, but some contracts will settle with the delivery of the underlying asset to a centralized processing warehouse.
When buying a call option, the strike price of an option for a stock, for example, will be determined based on the current price of that stock. For example, if a share of a given stock (like Amazon (AMZN) ) is $1,748, any strike price (price of the call option) that is above that share price is considered to be "out of the money." Conversely, if the strike price is under the current share price of the stock, it's considered "in the money."