Whereas price extremes have no boundaries, they don't last forever, eventually commodity market supply and demand factors will bring prices back to a more equilibrium state. Accordingly, while caution is warranted at extreme levels it is often a good time to be constructing counter trend trades as it could be one of the most advantageous times in history to be involved in a market. For instance, similar to the idea of call options being over-priced when a market is at an extreme high, the puts might be abnormally cheap. Once again, your personal situation would determine whether an unlimited risk or limited risk option strategy should be utilized. Please realize that identifying extreme pricing scenarios is easy, it is much more difficult to predict the timing necessary to convert it into a profitable venture.
Traders that are willing to accept considerable amounts of risk with the prospects of limited reward, can write (or sell) options, collecting the premium and taking advantage of the well-known belief that more options than not expire worthless. The premium collected by a commodity option seller is seen as a liability until the option is either offset (by buying it back), or it expires. This is because as long as the option position is open (the trader is short the commodity option), there is substantial risk exposure. Should the futures price trade beyond the strike price of the option, the risk is similar to holding a commodity futures contract outright.
Based on data from IHS Markit for SEC Rule 605 eligible orders executed at Fidelity between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 20198. The comparison is based on an analysis of price statistics that include all SEC Rule 605 eligible market and marketable limit orders of 100-499 shares for the 100 share figure and 100–1,999 shares for the 1,000 share figure. For both the Fidelity and Industry savings per order figures used in the example, the figures are calculated by taking the average savings per share for the eligible trades within the respective order size range and multiplying each by either 100 or 1000, for consistency purposes. Fidelity's average retail order size for SEC Rule 605 eligible orders (100 -1,999 shares) and (100–9,999 shares) during this time period was 430 and 842 shares, respectively. The average retail order size for the Industry for the same shares ranges and time period was 228 and 333 shares, respectively. Price improvement examples are based on averages and any price improvement amounts related to your trades will depend on the particulars of your specific trade.
Call writers and put writers (sellers), however, are obligated to buy or sell if the option expires in-the-money (more on that below). This means that a seller may be required to make good on a promise to buy or sell. It also implies that option sellers have exposure to more, and in some cases, unlimited, risks. This means writers can lose much more than the price of the options premium.
With options markets, as with futures markets, long and short refer to the buying and selling of one or more contracts, but unlike futures markets, they do not refer to the direction of the trade. For example, if a futures trade is entered by buying a contract, the trade is a long trade, and the trader wants the price to go up, but with options, a trade can be entered by buying a Put contract, and is still a long trade, even though the trader wants the price to go down. The following chart may help explain this further:
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All securities involve risk and may result in loss. While the data Ally Invest uses from third parties is believed to be reliable, Ally Invest cannot ensure the accuracy or completeness of data provided by clients or third parties.
Because options prices can be modeled mathematically with a model such as the Black-Scholes, many of the risks associated with options can also be modeled and understood. This particular feature of options actually makes them arguably less risky than other asset classes, or at least allows the risks associated with options to be understood and evaluated. Individual risks have been assigned Greek letter names, and are sometimes referred to simply as "the Greeks."
Commodity options provide a flexible and effective way to trade in the futures markets. Further, options on futures offer investors the ability to capitalize on leverage while still giving them the ability to manage risk. For example, through the combination of long and short call and put options in the commodity markets, an investor can design a trading strategy that fits their needs and expectations; such an arrangement is referred to as an option spread. Keep in mind that the possibilities are endless and will ultimately be determined by a trader's objectives, time horizon, market sentiment, and risk tolerance.