In search of a promising commodity option trade, it is important to look at whether or not the options are priced fairly. Option prices fluctuate according to supply and demand in the underlying commodity market. At times, options on futures prices become inflated or undervalued relative to theoretical models such as Black and Scholes. For example, during the "crash" of 2008 the value of put options exploded as traders scrambled to buy insurance for their stock portfolios or simply wanted to wager that the equity market would go down forever. The increase in option premium was partly due to inflated volatility but increased demand for the instruments had a lot to do with it. Those that chose to purchase put options at inopportune times and at overvalued prices, likely didn't fair very well.
Arbitrage arguments:  When the commodity has plentiful supply then the prices can be very well dictated or influenced by Arbitrage arguments. Arbitrage is basically buying in one market and simultaneously selling in another, profiting from a temporary difference. This is considered riskless profit for the investor/trader. For example, if the price of gold in delhi is INR 30,000 per 10 grams and in Mumbai gold price is INR 35,000 then arbitrageur will purchase gold in Delhi and sell in Mumbai
The price at which you agree to buy the underlying security via the option is called the "strike price," and the fee you pay for buying that option contract is called the "premium." When determining the strike price, you are betting that the asset (typically a stock) will go up or down in price. The price you are paying for that bet is the premium, which is a percentage of the value of that asset.