In our opinion, commodity markets coming off of long-term highs or lows typically present traders with an extraordinary prospect. However, it is important to realize that just because a commodity seems "cheap" doesn't mean that it can't go lower. Likewise, while we would never advocate buying (or being bullish with options) a commodity at an all time high, it is always possible that prices can continue higher but generally speaking options in such an environment are over-priced. As a result, they come with magnificently low odds of success.
The world of commodity options is diverse and cannot be given justice in a short article such as this. The purpose of this writing is to simply introduce the topic of options on futures. Should you want to learn commodity options trading strategies in more detail, please consider purchasing "Commodity Options" published by FT Press at www.CommodityOptionstheBook.com.
The less time there is until expiry, the less value an option will have. This is because the chances of a price move in the underlying stock diminish as we draw closer to expiry. This is why an option is a wasting asset. If you buy a one-month option that is out of the money, and the stock doesn’t move, the option becomes less valuable with each passing day. Since time is a component to the price of an option, a one-month option is going to be less valuable than a three-month option. This is because with more time available, the probability of a price move in your favor increases, and vice versa.
Volatility: If an options market is highly volatile (i.e. if its daily price range is large), the premium will be higher, because the option has the potential to make more profit for the buyer. Conversely, if an options market is not volatile (i.e. if its daily price range is small), the premium will be lower. An options market's volatility is calculated using its long-term price range, its recent price range, and its expected price range before its expiration date, using various volatility pricing models.
If there’s a company you’ve had your eye on and you believe the stock price is going to rise, a “call” option gives you the right to purchase shares at a specified price at a later date. If your prediction pans out you get to buy the stock for less than it’s selling for on the open market. If it doesn’t, your financial losses are limited to the price of the contract.
As an example, let's say a farmer is expecting to produce 1,000,000 bushels of soybeans in the next 12 months. Typically, soybean futures contracts include the quantity of 5,000 bushels. The farmer's break-even point on a bushel of soybeans is $10 per bushel meaning $10 is the minimum price needed to cover the costs of producing the soybeans. The farmer sees that a one-year futures contract for soybeans is currently priced at $15 per bushel.
In the case of perishable commodity, the cost of storage is higher than expected future price of a commodity (For ex: TradeINR prefer to sell tomatoes now rather than waiting for 3 more months to get a good price as a cost of storage of tomato is more than price they yield by storing the same). So in this case, the spot prices reflect current supply and demand, not future movements. There spot prices for perishables are more volatile.
* Sell orders are subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). Trades are limited to online domestic equities and options and must be used within two years. Options trades are limited to 20 contracts per trade. Offer valid for new and existing Fidelity customers opening or adding net new assets to an eligible Fidelity IRA or brokerage account. Deposits of $50,000-$99,999 will receive 300 free trades, and deposits of $100,000 or more will receive 500 free trades. Account balance of $50,000 of net new assets must be maintained for at least nine months; otherwise, normal commission schedule rates may be retroactively applied to any free trade executions. See Fidelity.com/ATP500free for further details and full offer terms. Fidelity reserves the right to modify these terms and conditions or terminate this offer at any time. Other terms and conditions, or eligibility criteria may apply.
In case of futures, a buyer of a contract is said to be “long position holder” and a seller is “Short position holder”. In the case of futures, to avoid the risk of defaulting contract involves both parties lodging a certain percentage margin of value of contract with a mutually trusted third party. Generally, in gold futures trading, margin varies between 2%-20% depending on the volatility of gold in spot market.
Trading in commodity futures contracts can be very risky for the inexperienced. The high degree of leverage used with commodity futures can amplify gains, but losses can be amplified as well. If a futures contract position is losing money, the broker can initiate a margin call, which is a demand for additional funds to shore up the account. Further, the broker will usually have to approve an account to trade on margins before they can enter into contracts.
Purchasing a call option is essentially betting that the price of the share of security (like a stock or index) will go up over the course of a predetermined amount of time. For instance, if you buy a call option for Alphabet (GOOG) at, say, $1,500 and are feeling bullish about the stock, you are predicting that the share price for Alphabet will increase.